Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.594301 23.599604 25.833681 28.533559 31.744842 35.491303 40.268866
2025-01-05 18.623725 21.231274 24.363426 28.496892 33.964820 41.207030 52.036011
2025-01-12 16.373105 19.205887 22.791315 27.840100 35.104797 45.840979 64.578734
2025-01-19 15.418357 18.580945 22.791795 29.125915 39.110572 55.908680 92.038219
2025-01-26 14.217147 17.441038 21.882192 28.879229 40.681850 62.730385 120.386442
2025-02-02 13.361290 16.650188 21.321015 29.001668 42.837115 71.676873 167.462048
2025-02-09 12.691356 16.035365 20.915412 29.262576 45.281605 82.718944 251.103891
2025-02-16 12.085038 15.445365 20.462550 29.341052 47.379762 94.513450 404.017127
2025-02-23 11.458583 14.767941 19.793019 28.916427 48.297954 103.921569 663.442254
2025-03-02 10.997606 14.299140 19.402670 28.928744 50.199167 118.529615 1637.885271
2025-03-09 10.544307 13.806950 18.923751 28.695074 51.458158 132.570981 10339.126039
2025-03-16 10.118085 13.327281 18.421786 28.342040 52.329242 146.591027 NaN
2025-03-23 9.737218 12.900199 17.981994 28.072754 53.426254 164.469508 NaN
2025-03-30 9.399227 12.521259 17.595198 27.863108 54.666791 186.653902 NaN
2025-04-06 9.013099 12.045015 17.005301 27.154956 54.261358 198.128005 NaN
2025-04-13 8.938428 12.063746 17.284307 28.350222 60.214610 284.158092 NaN
2025-04-20 8.665891 11.744509 16.932517 28.097925 61.351522 332.076873 NaN
2025-04-27 8.461426 11.526659 16.749216 28.207260 63.862015 424.916695 NaN
2025-05-04 8.288143 11.351328 16.630801 28.452720 67.052664 588.176980 NaN
2025-05-11 8.105172 11.150579 16.450381 28.525974 69.657422 830.392497 NaN
2025-05-18 7.877944 10.865227 16.092228 28.120214 70.110458 1040.794495 NaN
2025-05-25 7.711958 10.677054 15.908527 28.131641 72.492275 1676.098392 NaN
2025-06-01 7.529879 10.453968 15.644440 27.908534 73.740261 2721.756578 NaN